West Bromwich Albion are the front-runners in the Championship at the halfway stage of the season.
23 games, 50 points, 46 goals scored, and a three-point lead. If they keep this up, then it is hard to deny that the Baggies are well on track for a return to the promised land of the Premier League.
But that ‘P’ word should stay out of the mouths of many at the Hawthorns for at least another few months as the expected goals table tells another story, a rather damning one at that.
On the Chalkboard
According to Experimental361, Albion’s nearest challengers and the only side to defeat them this season, Leeds United, should be running away with the league substantially.
Marcelo Bielsa’s side should have a whopping 62 points with a 16 point cushion over Brentford in second.
While West Brom find themselves all the way in seventh place as the xG table suggests they should have lost a vast seven more games, which means Albion should have also won four fewer matches.
It would leave them on just 35 points, 15 fewer than they are currently on.
This xG model can’t be taken as gospel, but that doesn’t mean there should be concerns ringing in the ears of manager Slaven Bilic.
If anything, it shows that the west Midlanders have had plenty of luck on their side and that’s something you can’t expect to ride throughout the entirety of the season.
Bilic’s strikers have found their scoring boots in recent weeks with Charlie Austin bagging six goals in his last seven games and Hal Robson-Kanu taking his total tally to six.
But the side should have scored eight fewer goals while defensively, they should have let in five more.
Therefore, thoughts of Albion achieving promotion this campaign are a little premature, even in spite of the current circumstances they find themselves in.
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Only one team top at Christmas has failed to reach the top-flight this decade – Leeds last season.
There’s still plenty of work to be done, especially after the drastic contrast between the actual table and the xG one at the halfway stage of this term.
And in other Baggies news, one of last season’s most consistent players should be sold next month…